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Natural Gas is Bearish but Currently Holding Exhaustion 12/2/21


On a macro basis: The decent trade above 2661 (-.5 of a tic per/hour) brought in 3805 tics of higher trade. I noted the week of April 26th we also broke back above a significant formation on the Weekly charts at 2779 that warned of continued strength in general—we have seen 3687 tics of this. The trade above 2896 (+.5 of a tic per/hour) brought in 3570 tics of the continued strength we were looking for above. We held exhaustion at 2910-894 with a 2914 low and rallied for 3552 tics. We left a medium-term bullish reversal below on 6/1 that warned of renewed strength for days/weeks. We have seen 3399 tics from 3067 so far. The decent trade above 3108-09 projects this upward 85 tics minimum, 210 tics (+) maximum. We attained 3357 tics of this. The decent trade above 3304 (+1 tic per/hour) brought in 3162 tics of strength. The decent trade above 3712 (-.5 of a tic per/hour) warned of renewed strength. We have attained 2754 tics of this. We have seen 2497 tics of the strength warned about from 3969. We basically held exhaustion at 3751 and bounced 2715 tics into a lower time frame bullish trend. The decent trade above 3930 (-1 tic per/hour) has brought in 2536 tics. NOTE: on a very macro basis, the break above 4904 projects this upward $3.38, which could take roughly 14 months to attain (we are in the 4th month). Trade at 4058 would negate this projection. All the above are ON HOLD.


On a shorter-term basis: The decent trade below 5186 (+4 tics per/hour) has brought in 1063 tics of the pressure warned about below so far. The decent break below 4833 (-2.8 tics per/hour) warned of further pressure—we have seen 710 tics of this so far. The maintained gap lower Monday left a minor bearish reversal above. I would NOTE: there are two major areas of possible exhaustion to contend with on the way down at 4133-3956 and 3444-273, but these will likely offer only temporary support at this time—we are currently holding the upper of these with a 4123 low and have bounced 212 tics. I would CAUTION we have gapped lower three days in a row—the likelihood of seeing some corrective/consolidative trade soon is fairly high before seeing more substantial downside. There is also substantial structural support in the 4009-3976 area on the way down.


NOTE: this is just a small portion of the market calls I provide my clients twice daily in the Natural Gas and Energy/Gold complex. 'Decent penetrations' are specific amounts provided to clients daily as well. If you are interested, please feel free to reach out.


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